"It's hard to say whether it can rebound quickly in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the sales of vehicle engines for the whole year will be basically in line with the sales trend in the first three quarters. However, I have great expectations for the market to improve next year." Deputy Secretary General of the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association Ge Hong In an interview with reporters, said.
According to the sales trend of the market in previous years, the fourth quarter is the end of the period in which engine companies increase sales and impact the annual production and sales targets. In December of each year, even a single month sales record of engine companies will be created. However, the overall performance of the automotive engine market in the first three quarters of this year was too low, allowing engine companies and industry experts to be more cautious about the situation in the year.
According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national economy in the third quarter of this year continued its downward trend in recent years. Ge Hong believes that in this economic context, coupled with the relatively rapid growth of the engine market in the past few years, the base number of holdings continues to rise, the automotive engine market will be very difficult to have very aggressive performance in the fourth quarter. The slowdown in economic growth has already put downward pressure on the production and sales volume of engine companies. Emissions upgrading and internationalization and high-end competition also force companies to focus more on actively adjusting product mix and corporate business strategies.
Fourth Quarter 2015 Engine Sales Forecast
â— Diesel engine sales will usher in recovery
The current engine market, especially the commercial vehicle market, is indeed worrying. But this does not mean that the engine industry will continue to slump. Compared with the gasoline engine market, the diesel engine market needs to bottom out. Overall, the market performance of the diesel engine market will be better than the first three quarters in the whole year. It is expected that the sales volume will increase steadily in the last three months of this year.
Wei Dehui, vice president of Weichai Power Co., Ltd., said: “Although the engine market has changed significantly this year, the sales trend of the engine in the fourth quarter will remain the same as in previous years. As the market performance in the third quarter was too cool, the market rebounded in the fourth quarter. It will be more obvious."
In the interview, Zhu Guoan, director of the marketing center of Jiangxi Isuzu Engine Co., Ltd. believes that in February and July of this year, the diesel engine market fell into two troughs twice, driving down the overall market performance in the first three quarters. Therefore, the production and sales of diesel engines rebounded in the fourth quarter. The trend may be weaker than in previous years. However, the state-owned enterprises with better engine reserves will have better performance, especially in the field of high-end diesel engines. On the other hand, the recent “mass emission fraud†incident may weaken the state’s efforts to promote the dieselization of passenger vehicles, and the growth of the diesel engine market needs to continue to be excavated.
Since the beginning of this year, the major diesel engine manufacturers in the market are adjusting the industrial structure and product structure, increasing the sales ratio of the National IV engine, and researching and developing reserves of the country's five or even European products. Ge Hong suggested that during the relatively low market, it should be a good opportunity for enterprises to pick themselves up and improve their skills. Regardless of market sales and changes in policies, enterprises must ensure continued improvement in their technological strength and R&D investment, and strengthen adjustments and improvements in areas such as technological innovation, personnel training, market network reconstruction, and mass production of new products.
â— Rationally treat market changes
According to a number of industry experts recently contacted by reporters, under the support of the SUV market, the production and sales of the passenger vehicle market in China are expected to maintain a growth rate of about 3% this year. In the fourth quarter, the passenger vehicle market will continue to maintain growth, and gasoline engine demand will also maintain steady growth. Zhu Guoan believes that the increase in the sales volume of SUVs and MPVs and the increase in the self-provisioning of gasoline engines for mainstream passenger car companies will continue to boost the gasoline engine market, and the market sales pattern will also undergo certain changes.
Natural gas engines have potential for development, but at present they are not the best opportunities for development. From the perspective of recent interviews with companies and gas engine experts, gas engines can hardly become the main profit support point for enterprises. Most companies still have technology reserves and research and development, and some advanced models or hybrid types will make breakthroughs in the future. However, the overall market sales may decline further.
Ge Hong said that both engine companies and national policy-making departments should treat the changes in the engine market rationally, have long-term strategic plans, respect the laws of market development, and must not forcibly promote sales growth, overdraft future markets, otherwise they will bring Has a strong negative impact.
The situation is now set and it will take until next year. Most engine companies are actively researching and developing new technologies and putting into production new products, including turbocharged engines and high pressure common rail technology. Technical reserves are the most talked about by engine companies this year. However, how to lead suppliers to make common progress and ensure that product reliability continues to increase, and to get rid of the dependence of key components on foreign suppliers is still the most practical problem faced by companies and even the entire engine industry. This is also the key to the breakthrough of engine companies' future development. .
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