LED industry believes that if LED inventory exceeds 6 months, it must cancel 20 to 30% of inventory, manufacturers must carefully control the inventory level, through inventory to delay the market price decline, manufacturers have to work hard to profit, the upstream and downstream industries fall into The tug-of-war will be apparent in the second half of the year. The mainland LED die factory continues to expand production capacity. In 2018, the LED industry oversupply problem has become the focus of attention. Although the recent decline in LED prices has eased, the industry is worried that the second quarter has passed halfway. The global LED market is still not looking forward to Chunyan. The good news, the end customers are reluctant to place long orders, forcing a new wave of price hikes in the LED market is just about to move. If the third quarter is still not busy, LED chip production will be imminent, otherwise it will be difficult to avoid the price break crisis, the industry They are waiting to see who will take the lead in starting production cuts or price cuts. As far as the overall LED market demand is concerned, there are still differences in the application of different products. Among them, the demand for LED display and invisible light is relatively stable, but the blue LED pull is weak, and it can be seen from the decline of many LED factories in April. The clue is different from the previous year's LED market conditions from March, the LED market is slow in 2018, and the LED demand in the second quarter is difficult to be optimistic. LED industry revealed that the North American LED lighting terminal market sales performance is not as expected, from March to April, once faced customer customers cut orders, because the next wave of lighting sales season will fall before the end of the holiday in Europe and the United States, the third season is expected to emerge a new wave Pull goods demand. Although the industry is still looking forward to the temperature recovery in the third quarter of the peak season, another warning that cannot be ignored is that the inventory level of the LED die factory is still high. Although the profit performance of Sanan and Huacan of the mainland LED die factory was not bad, the inventory in the first quarter increased rapidly. The revenue of Sanan's first quarter was RMB 1.945 billion, and the inventory amount reached 2.225 billion yuan. In the same period of 2017, the inventory amount was only 1.057 billion yuan, and in the fourth quarter of 2017, about 1.8 billion yuan, Sanan increased the inventory of more than 400 million yuan in a quarter. The inventory amount of Huacan Optoelectronics also showed a quarterly increase. The revenue for the first quarter of 2018 was RMB 710 million, but the inventory amount reached 789 million yuan, up from 685 million yuan in the previous quarter and 506 million yuan compared with the same period of 2017. Apparently pulled high. As for Jingdian, there is a similar situation. Although the profitability performance remained in the first quarter, the single-season revenue was NT$5.15 billion, a decrease of about 10% from the same period in 2017, while the inventory amount reached 5.422 billion yuan, the first in 2016. The stock has been at a new high since the season. In the face of the new capacity of the mainland LED die factory, the terminal demand has not been able to grow rapidly. The LED industry admits that there is a possibility of falling prices every day. The industry is aware that the LED die has entered an oversupply situation and is in the expectation of falling prices. Under the customer's reluctance to provide long orders, the order visibility is only about 1 month. LED industry believes that if LED inventory exceeds 6 months, it must cancel 20 to 30% of inventory, manufacturers must carefully control the inventory level, through inventory to delay the market price decline, manufacturers have to work hard to profit, the upstream and downstream industries fall into The tug-of-war will be apparent in the second half of the year. From the first half of the 2018 situation, the LED chip manufacturers on both sides of the strait do not seem to be inclined to the price-competition strategy. After all, the rapid decline in prices in the fourth quarter of 2017 has caused other peers to follow up the price cuts, which will not help their own market share. It also led to chaos in the industrial order. The LED chip price collapse crisis is on the verge of a flash, but if the LED die factory announces a reduction in production in 2015, it will drive the LED price to stabilize and stabilize. In the face of the oversupply situation, rational control of upstream grain output, despite the lower utilization rate. And production costs have increased, but perhaps it is a solution to the balance between supply and demand. For the LED die factory, whether it is to cut prices or reduce production is a dilemma, whether the demand for the third quarter of the peak season can be smoothly destocked remains to be observed, otherwise it will enter the industry off-season again in the fourth quarter, and the mainland industry will introduce new products again. A batch of machines in mass production, LED prices fell below the cash cost of the Warring States era, fear will re-debut. In addition, the global economic situation in 2018 has also added variables, including the fact that the US 301 clause on the mainland has not yet been clarified. LED lighting is not included in the sanctions list, but the LEDs used for backlighting are on the list, and the end customers are avoiding the risk of breaking. The supply chain preparation plan was gradually adjusted, which led to a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Recently, the US-China trade consultation is heading towards positive development, slightly alleviating the uneasy atmosphere of the supply chain. TV new machines are also expected to ship smoothly, but for terminal brand players, how to disperse the upstream supply chain to other regional production will become the focus of future considerations. . (
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