In 2018, the company's target for the production and sales of mid-to-heavy engines in the year 2018 is 620-800,000 units, which is 20-55% more than the sales volume of 515,000 units in 2017. In terms of product structure, the engine with high displacement is expected to be expected. The percentage will be further increased. The medium- and heavy-duty engine subdivision in 2017 will be: 21,000 units for more than 10L units, 90% units for 9-10L units, and 100,000 units for 4-9L units. The subsidiary's sales target of 2018 for the entire year of 2018. 
Weichai Power
First Quarter 2018 Engine Order Status
In mid-heavy engine scheduling in January 2018, 59,000 units were at a relatively high level, exceeding the highest single-month sales in the previous year; the company believes that orders will remain at a higher level throughout the first quarter and even April. It is expected that the production and sales of 250,000 units will be completed in the first four months, which is expected to exceed 40% over the same period of last year.
The company’s view of the heavy truck market
In 2018, the heavy truck market is expected to reach a scale of 900,000, although it will fall from 1.1 million in 17 years, but it will increase compared to the scale of 50-80 million in the period from 12 to 16 years, and Last year's high sales fell little.
In the long run, the company believes that the cyclical fluctuations in the heavy truck market will decrease in the future, and the long-term heavy truck market will have a size of more than 900,000. The main reasons are: 1. Existing 5.6 million heavy trucks, calculated in accordance with the replacement cycle of 6 years, sales volume in one year has reached 900,000; 2. The elimination of environmental protection and the increase in exports are also expected to bring about a small increase in the market.
In the past 10 years, due to the drastic increase in sales of heavy trucks in the year brought about by the country's 4 trillion stimulus policy in 2010, sales overdrafts in subsequent years have been overdrawn, and in some years, it is low; in fact, according to natural demand, the heavy truck market has grown slowly in the past decade. , from the scale of 50-60 million in 07-09 to the average annual scale of 60-70 million in 10-15 years.
In addition, in recent years, the unit price of the heavy truck market has also increased significantly, and it is expected that the trend will continue. China's heavy-duty truck market has a unit price of 20,000 to 300,000 products, and has a large room for improvement compared with the millions of European and American mature markets such as Daimler, Mann, and Scania.
in stock
At present, the inventory of engine inventory and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck are all at a relatively low level. There are about 10,000 engines in the factory's inventory. Compared with the current one-week demand, the entire vehicle also has about 10,000 units of inventory. Relative to January sales.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Affected by the slight decline in the sales volume of heavy trucks in November and December of the 17th, the market has already reflected the pessimistic sentiment on the heavy truck-related targets; however, the heavy truck market still exists in the 18-year heavy truck market, and heavy-duty truck market does not appear The fact of falling and cyclical fluctuations is further being verified. As a leading company in the heavy truck industry chain, Weichai Power (8.400, -0.08, -0.94%) has estimated the A-share valuation only 11-12 times in 17 years. We expect net profit attributable to mothers in 2017-2019 to be 6.49 billion yuan, 6.16 billion yuan and 6.33 billion yuan, an increase of 166%, -5%, and 2.75% year-on-year, and EPS of 0.81, 0.77, and 0.79, corresponding to P/E of 11, 12 and 12 times. Maintain "Buy" rating.
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